Jared Goff's Energy Revisited

I’m going to take a break from the challenging posts I’ve been putting up lately.  In my effort to speak my truth, I’m being too harsh and causing some unnecessary pain.  It’s because this isn’t an easy divorce for me, leaving the communities I once called home.  My general approach to such things when I realize it’s time is to “rip the Band-Aid off,” but that’s a pretty traumatic process for anyone watching.

So I’m going to venture into more benign territory and talk about football.  I’m going to revisit my energetic profile of Jared Goff, now QB for the Los Angeles Rams.  About a year ago, I wrote a profile of Goff and said he had the energy of a superstar QB and team leader.  Then last season happened.  Needless to say, the energies I saw in him did not manifest on the field last season.

So was my reading incorrect?  Testing says no.  The reading was correct.  My conclusions, which were not based on energy reading or testing but my own assumptions, were way off the mark.  Go figure.  If anything, it’s a lesson in how not to value one’s “emotional logic” over intuitive imprints sitting right in front of us. 

It’s also a lesson in how football is a team sport.  The Rams began the 2016 season with a lot of problems on offense. They ended the season with a lot of problems everywhere.  In the middle of that transition from bad to worse, Goff was tapped as the starter.  Needless to say it didn’t go well.

Has Goff’s energy changed significantly since last year?  He’s a little more grounded, but otherwise about the same.  He’s also apparently put on some weight from weight lifting and training.  All indications are he’s reacting positively to the failure of 2016, a sign of strong energy.

Lots of successful players (especially at QB) spend years in the wilderness before achieving success.  It’s not unusual for truly successful people to need a long runway before liftoff.  Also, 2016 saw a number of other rookie QBs do relatively well, which of course brings up the concerns of Goff being a bust for this reason or that. 

It’s far too early for that kind of talk.  Also, those comparisons are not apples-to-apples.  A mediocre rookie can look phenomenal behind a stellar O-Line and with a full stable of good receivers.  And a very good QB can look horrible without those things.  So is Goff right now a good QB on a bad team or a bad QB on a bad team?  Hard to tell.  One thing we do know, Goff’s offense in 2016 was horrible.   The O-Line was bad, the receivers were putrid, the running game was nonexistent.  How good can a QB be when he has no blocking, no running and nobody to throw to?  No better than a bad QB.

In other words, we know next to nothing about Goff’s abilities as a QB.  Unless we could put him behind center on a good offense, there’s no way to tell.  It appears the Rams have upgraded their offense, but who knows?  It’s the offseason and all we have is a handful of objectively bad games to examine.

So what will Goff be like this year?  He’ll be better than last year.  Can’t get much worse.  If he has decent protection and receivers who catch the ball (how does any Rams receiver from last season still have a job?), he’ll look much better.  Those two things alone will open up the running game and then we’ll see if Goff in fact has the leadership energies I’m seeing in his profile. 

Over the long-term I see Goff being a successful franchise QB. My concern at this point is 2017 will likely be a below-mediocre year for the Rams.  Everyone talks about the Rams defense, but in the second half of the season the injuries piled up and the defense was unimpressive at best.  Guess what?  2017 season has just as many games as 2016, so however good the Rams defense is at full-strength, it won’t stay there long enough to keep the team in games at the end of the season.  So no matter what Goff does, the Rams are looking at probably an 8-win ceiling.  Goff was unfairly blamed for defensive problems at Cal, don’t expect Rams fans to be any more gracious (or intelligent).  If management gets impatient, Goff could end up being someone else’s franchise QB, maybe after spending a few seasons as a back-up somewhere, and the Rams will have squandered their #1 overall pick about as badly as a team could. I wouldn’t put that possibility past the Rams’ management.

So I’ll withhold any bold predictions for Goff this season except he’ll be noticeably better than last season.  My long-term assessment remains unchanged.